I want to believe

I didn't go to a casino yesterday to play; it was me, a pie from Papa John's, and the computer. I played a little bit at Absolute Poker and Full Tilt Poker, and broke about even. It had been a long time since I'd played online, and I've got to tell you, it feels like "Poker Light". It has no flavor. It was fun, though, to play a few tournaments. I might have to try a few live ones after Amy's gone. She'll be here in a few hours, so today's post will be short.

Yesterday, I briefly referred to a "syndrome", and I'll call it the "I Want To Believe" syndrome. This phrase, you may remember, is slathered across the bottom of posters showing pictures of alleged UFOs. One of these posters adorned the wall in FBI Agent Fox Mulder's office wall, in the X-Files show. Agent Mulder, of course, was predisposed to coming up the most outlandish supernatural explanations for unexplained crimes. To keep him in check, the FBI then assigned another agent (Dana Scully) to work with him. Her job was to come up with equally outlandish, but scientific, explanations for the same crimes. Today's $1 goes to the first person who can name the music director for that show.

For the record, I have no opinion on whether or not aliens have visited our planet. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't. There doesn't appear to be any conclusive evidence that they have. As for the government/military being able to cover up something of that magnitude, my suggestion is to think back over all the things they haven't been able to cover up over the years, and then draw your own conclusions. All the same, the fact that there's total eclipse today is kinda creeping me out. If there ever were a good time for a sneak attack, it would be right then. I've got my aluminum foil hat ready, just in case. By the way, I saw a caption for an eclipse-related photo saying it was being billed as the biggest tourist draw ever for the country of Libya! Libya, anyone? Who's with me?

The point is, many, if not most, poker players could all take a cue from Dana Scully. There's a tendency to want to believe that your hand is the best - that your bluff will work - that your three-outer will hit - anything that results in you winning the hand. And because we want to believe this so badly, we search for supporting evidence, while ignoring evidence to the contrary. Sound familiar? As in, confirmation bias? However, typically the most rational conclusion is the correct one. And it's funny how when you're removed from the situation, and you see it happening to someone else, it is so clear that what they're doing is illogical.

Let me give you an example in the form of an HOTD.

HAND OF THE DAY:
------------------------

This HOTD is a completely hypothetical situation, but some personification would help. So let's call our protagonist yantBray eLay, and for the sake of argument, let's make him a solid player.

yantBray had gotten himself involved in a pot with a decidedly marginal hand - AT off. His opponents could best be described as unknowns. One gentleman had shown that he would play any two cards dealt to him; the other was new to the table but had shown some erratic behavior as well.

Flop: A24

I don't remember the amount of the betting here, but it was mild. All three players remained in the pot.

Turn: 2

There is now a pair on the board, as well as a possible straight. The action gets to the first of the two opponents, and he bets heavily - $50. This bet is called by the second of the two opponents. And it is now clear to you, me, and our fictional character yantBray that AT off is not a particularly strong holding - even considering the unpredictable nature of each opponent. Consider the multitude of hands that could beat top pair with a T kick on a paired/straight board, and it is clear that even calling is dubious, and the correct course of action likely would be to fold.

Here's where the "I Want To Believe" syndrome kicks in. In this story, our hero arrives at the conclusion that he has the best hand - despite convincing evidence (a $50 bet, which is called by another opponent) to the contrary. I know that this imaginary yantBray would have laid down his hand in an instant, if disciplined players were doing the betting. But, one thing to remember is that even unpredictable players can get a hand, as we've seen so many times at the McGarry home games (you know who you are).

To illustrate the point, our guy decides to push all in. Both opponents call, and one turns over a made straight (53), and the other turns over A6. There are only four cards remaining in the deck that can help him now - two aces, two deuces.

Aww...what the heck. Everyone likes a happy ending, right? Let's say that yantBray hits the miracle A on the river, giving him and his A6 opponent the same full house. They split the pot and the guy with the straight shrivels up and dies.

Now I'm not saying you should lay down your hands at the slightest provocation. However, sometimes a hand can best be assessed by stripping it down to the most basic elements. At the turn, the hand could have been distilled to this: "I have top pair with a middling kicker on a paired board (i.e. possible trips or full house) that also has a possible straight. I have two opponents; one of them has bet heavily at this pot, and the other has called".

I found this hand interesting, umm, as I dreamed it up, because I've done similar things in the past. After hands of this type, I find myself wishing I would take more time to analyze the situation, rather than getting caught up in it. So play well, and come back down to Earth if you find yourself doing stuff that's a little bit "out there".