Got myself a Stetson, and a fancy vest

I didn't play yesterday. But I realized that I basically need to cowboy up, get back out there, and try to spank a few people.

Chuy, nice try on the NIN song, but the title is "Self Destruction, Part Two". Today's song title would very likely be only guessed by either of my sisters, or my dad. The author is not necessary, since I don't know it myself.

While we're on the subject of old music and cowboys, I thought I'd share with you all a wonderful resource for downloading what the website authors are calling "Roots Music". It's a boatload of free MP3s of various styles, mostly from the 1920s-1930s. Good stuff if you're interested in music from that era: http://juneberry78s.com/sounds/index.htm

I have no HOTD of my own, so I will address one that I got via email, from someone who requested my opinion.

HAND OF THE DAY:
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A woman sat down on my immediate right, and this was maybe her second hand. She had taken down a decent pot in her first hand, so I had no information on her except that maybe she was feeling pretty confident having won her first hand without much of a fight. She had maybe $250 and I had maybe $325.

She was in seat 7; I was in seat 8 (only 9 players fit at the table instead of 10). I think seat 2 or 3 was small blind ($3) and seat 3 or 4 was big blind ($5).

I think she had bet only one previous hand, but I don't remember anything about it. However, she did make a sizable bet in order to scare away her contender on the first hand, which allowed her to take down about $50 profit to her on the hand.

On the hand in question, I don't think there was any meaningful previous betting. There were the blinds, and maybe one person called the big blind. There was no more than $13 or 18 in the pot by the time it got to her. As far as prior betting at the table before she arrived at the table, most big pre-flop bets by some of the people were running around $35.

The cards get dealt and I have AK unsuited. Woman bets $75. With $5 big blind, this seems like way too high a pre-flop bet, but then again I don't know whether she knows what an appropriate pre-flop bet is. I put her on a pocket pair, but given that I have AK I put her on a pair of tens, jacks or queens. I also know that if I call, I'll see her post-flop bet before having to commit to anything or reveal anything about my hand. So be honest... was I nuts to call? You won't hurt my feelings if you say yes.

Nuts to call? I don't know about that, but you pretty much need the pre-flop nuts (AA) to call this bet, in my opinion. KK would suffice as well. QQ I'd think about. Everything else, I'd toss, especially AK.

Let's take a look at AK and the read you had on your opponent (TT, JJ, QQ). Assuming your read is correct, your opponent will bet out strongly on any flop that doesn't contain an A or a K. You will then be forced to fold. If you do hit the flop, your opponent will likely check and fold to any bet from you. You will hit the flop roughly 1/3 of the time. So you will likely lose your $75 call two-thirds of the time, and have little expectation for extracting any more money from your opponent on the remaining 1/3 of the time. Clearly, you have a negative expectation overall with this hand. Then let's not forget the rare cases where you hit your A or K, and your opponent makes trips - in which case you probably will lose $250, the amount your opponent had in her stack.

Let's also not forget the cases in which your read is incorrect and your opponent has KK or AA. I agree that her raise is more likely to indicate a medium to medium-large pair, but there is some chance she could be going a little crazy with a truly premium hand, in which case you're toast once again. The fact that it was a woman doing the betting makes that scenario even more likely, as they tend to play much tighter than the men. Honestly people, there are few things at a poker table that scare me more than a woman betting. They are even scarier then, than they are in real life.

So to me, AK is an easy laydown in that hand. Other than folding, your second best option would be to push all in. AK is a slight dog to a smaller pair only after all 5 community cards have hit the board, which won't happen most of the time if you simply call, since you will have to fold after the flop. It's also possible your opponent would lay down TT or JJ and you would take the pot right there. With such large pre-flop bet though, this is unlikely.

The only situation in which I would call such a large bet pre-flop with AK is if the bettor was short-stacked and going all-in. In that case, their range of hands is much more likely to include AQ, AJ, KQ, or any of the smaller pocket pairs. Even then you're probably gambling with a disadvantage on the hand, but the blinds and limper money make up for that, and heck, it ain't no fun to lay down AK.

Play well, everyone. Yee-haw!!!