Things are going to change, I can feel it

I thought I was the man. But Frank Peng is the man. After driving out to Vegas yesterday, he hit the tables sometime around 2030 and almost 15 hours later, he's still out there.

He's actually on his way back right now, and obviously, he's going to want to sleep. Since the computer is in the room where he'll crash, today's post will be short.

Frank arrived to fill the void left when my cousin Heather and her two friends left this morning. Last night, Nikki and Sara weathered the "Thunder Down Under" male revue, while Heather and I opted for the Vegas classic "Folies Bergere" at the Tropicana. Apparently Sara scored a lap dance on the house, and the two of them (umm, I mean Nikki and Sara) had a good time.

I joined up with Frank at Bally's to play a little poker. I didn't get started until 2330 but managed to end up +$326 in four hours' time. Yes folks, that is a 'plus' sign in front of that last number. Heather watched me play a little and I tried to explain the reasoning behind a few of the hands I played, in case she ever wants to lose hundreds of dollars herself one day.

I don't know how the heck Rob got the Lord Tracy reference - I did a Google search myself and found nothing promising in several pages of hits. Right on! Scott Malmquist suggested today's in an earlier email, and hopefully it will prove to be true. We will see.

HAND OF THE DAY:
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While waiting for Frank to arrive and the girls to return from a shopping spree, I pulled out the ol' "Super System 2" and caught up on a little bit of poker reading. Doyle Brunson's chapter on no-limit outlined a strategy regarding playing small suited connectors when you "know" your opponent has a big pair, with the idea being that if you hit the flop you can bust him, and if you don't you can quickly bail.

So I find myself with 76 spades on the button, and I call. The big blind then raises to $20 - which at a $1-$2 blind game, is a large raise. From the blinds, this typically means JJ/AK or better. A short stack went all in for roughly the same amount, and with Doyle's advice fresh in my mind, I called.

Wonder of wonders - the flop comes T76. I now have two pair. The club and straight draw is a little scary, but there's little chance my opponent has those. He underbets the pot with $20, and I raise to $100. He is wary now and guesses I've flopped a set, but puts me all in for my remaining $30 or so.

The turn and river are harmless, and I more than double up on that hand (he had KK). I am still not convinced that this is a good strategy - I suppose it depends on the sizes of the stacks relative to the size of the bets. For instance, if your opponent bet out $20 and he only had $60 left in his stack, you probably are not going to hit the flop enough times (1 out of 4) enough times to justify the call. It makes more sense to call when both your stack and your opponent's are deep, thereby providing the possibility of a large payoff if the miracle flop comes.

Anyway, at least for today I cannot complain about the proverbial suckout, as I was finally the beneficiary of one. I think that makes it about 37 to 2 in favor of my opponents, but I'm conveniently letting my short term memory take over for a while. Play well, everyone!

This is a song about a fish! And fish are bad! Baaaaaaad!

Yesterday Amy returned to Los Angeles. We had a really good time and it was nice to take a break. We went on a short hike in the Red Rock area, and I was impressed with her determination to finish in the face of some very cold head-on winds. I kept trying to give her an excuse to turn back, because I wouldn't have minded it myself, but she wouldn't take the bait. Also, I must second her endorsement of Big Elvis. The highlight of the show had to be his stirring rendition of "My Way". The irony of this man, who makes his living by impersonating someone else, singing a classic about succeeding on your own terms was laugh-out-loud funny.

My cousin Heather and two of her friends, Nikki and Sara, arrived yesterday. Heather originally told me she would be accompanied by only one friend, but it seems she figured since everyone else in this city is taking advantage of me, she could do the same. Actually, they're all three very charming young ladies. This morning, as we all were sprawled around the living room, I asked "So which one of you is going to cook me breakfast?". This led to an initial offering of toast, which I upgraded to French, and within a few minutes two of them went shopping for ingredients. So life is good, very good. Everyone else who's coming to visit, please take note. Last night the girls went with Joe and Eileen K., two friends from L.A., to a hopping club in the Venetian and said it was a good time (thanks to Eileen for getting them in!).

Also, congrats to Chuy for hitting Amy's Dead Elvis thing on the head. For once I knew how it felt to look at the quote and go "What the....?" There is pretty much only one person in the world that would be able to get today's quote, and that person is my old college roomie. However, for today and today only, the "No Internet Searches" rule is lifted, so feel free to use the power of Google.

Edit: credit also to Jeff Lester for "Mark Snow" of X-files music fame. Jeff's racking 'em up!

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I went back, as any moth to a flame, to the Bellagio last night. I played a very tight and very patient game. It is interesting to see how tables evolve over the course of an evening. Right around 2100, I guessed that the table I was sitting at probably had the lowest combined IQ of any $2-$5 table I've been at. I'm not just saying that because of the play, which was also very bad. I don't automatically assume someone isn't bright if they play poorly. It was just an impression about the people behind the play. Anyway, it suited me fine, because I've kind of retreated back into my shell as far as my game goes - much less betting, much more waiting for good hands.

However, I still had to play on occasion. A bad run of cards in the first few hours of the evening gave way to a slew of nice pocket pairs. However, it would not be a Nutcracker blog without my nuts getting cracked. Somehow, somewhere, I must have really pissed an important someone off. The final hand of the night was - do I really need to spell it out? - AA. Once again I raise as I should, once again I get called, and once again I get cracked. Pocket 2s on a K52 flop. I would be really, really curious to know what my win percentage is with overpairs on this trip. Last night was another $400 down the proverbial drain. Goodbye, $400, goodbye!!! I'll miss you.

HAND OF THE DAY:
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Despite playing a very tight game last evening, there were a couple of times when I felt I had to actually play poker. One of those cases involved my 77 in second-to-last position. The UTG player, who I will describe more later, raised to $15. He got two callers in front of me, and I also called, hoping to hit a set. The button called, and both blind called, so now we have 7-player pot with more than $100 in it.

Flop: 952 - two of these are diamonds.

Side note: I may have to amend my "life is good comment" re French toast; the fire alarm is going off.

Back to poker: the small blind bets out, $20. This is a weak, weak bet into a $100+ pot. The big blind folds, the UTG player calls, CALLS mind you, and the two players after him call as well. Based on previous play and several other intangibles, I have characterized UTG and his two companions as the Bermuda Triangle of poker intelligence, with UTG being the base of said triangle. Now it's up to me. I have one player behind me, and I am fairly certain of at least one, and probably both, of the following:

1. I have the best hand
2. Everyone will fold to significant pressure.

So I raise to $80. Imagine my suprise when the button player raises all in with like another $15. I have no idea what he could have - my mind immediately goes to trips. But obviously, with the size of the pot being now well over $300, I'm calling the raise no matter what.

As predicted, the small blind folds, and this is where the hand gets interesting. UTG calls! I was not surprised by this at all - I'd seen this guy call large post-flop and post-turn bets with only overcards to the board on several previous hands. So, I was actually glad the guy had called. I still had $120 in my stack and knew the guy would call any turn bet. I figured there was a good chance I was behind the button all-in raiser and thought I could at least break even by doubling up my $120 through UTG. So on the turn, a J, UTG checked, I went all in, and got called.

I was absolutely flabbergasted when the guy turned over AA. I mean, he couldn't have played that hand worse if he had tried. A $15 raise pre-flop? A $20 post-flop flat call into a $125 pot with a diamond draw and five people in the pot with you? A flat-call of a raise to $80 and a subsequent all-in? It was absurd! It turns out the button all-in raiser was on a diamond draw with AQ and did not hit, so this guy ended up taking down a huge pot.

Looking back on that hand, I am convinced I played it well. Based on past hands, the betting, and my position, I believe that in a normally-played game I either would have won that hand outright, gotten my money in with a 55% chance of beating the overcard/flush draw, or been bet out of it by appropriate play from the UTG player. I don't think anyone in the world could have put that guy on aces. He basically won that hand in spite of himself.

For the trip, I am now back down to either -$1300 or -$1500. I am not certain because I'm not sure where my slip is from Monday.

The verdict on breakfast is in - excellent. French toast, sausage links, scrambled eggs, strawberries, and bananas. Life is indeed good. Eat well, everyone.

All That Glitters (Is Not Gold)

I blame Eric for this.

We had just finished a romantic dinner of homemade vegetarian Thai food when my sweet and oh-so-cute boyfriend of one whole month took me by the hand, gazed into my eyes, and uttered sixteen unforgettable words. “How would you feel if I went to Las Vegas for five weeks to play poker.” This bombshell was promptly followed by, “Tell me the truth.” Clearly, this was neither the time nor the place for honesty. I smiled through my gritted teeth and told him that it was imperative that he go, that the timing could not be better, and that I was so very, very excited on his behalf. Obviously, he totally bought it.

Before I met Eric, my entire knowledge of poker came from watching late-night tournaments on the Travel network and the excellent remake of Ocean’s 11. Thanks to Brad Pitt, I can tell you that the first rule of poker is to leave emotion at the door (that’s right, Topher). But as the captive audience for most of Eric’s big fish stories, I now realize that I would have to go back to school and get a degree in statistics with an emphasis in John Nash-ian game theory to play with any proficiency at all.

Suffice to say, a round-trip JetBlue ticket to Las Vegas went a long way to remove the sting of involuntarily giving up my boyfriend for Lent. While I’m here, Eric is kindly refraining from poker, and since he has no update, he’s asked me to be the Blogger Du Jour.

So, in lieu of a Hand of the Day, here’s my Ham of the Day:

If Vegas has an unofficial mascot, surely it is the allegedly late but unquestionably great Elvis Presley. Vegas without Elvis would be like Disneyland without The Mouse or Canter’s Deli without Rodney Bingenheimer. So when I found out that Elvis’s 400 pound lovechild, Pete “Big Elvis” Vallee performs daily at the lounge in the Barbary Coast for free, I knew I had to drag Eric, kicking and screaming though he might be, to see him. The act was everything you would expect from a [cough, cough] classic Vegas institution like the B.C. I urge you to go see the Son of Elvis before he drops dead of the massive coronary explosion that will most certainly hit his heart like a hunk, a hunk o’ burning love.

In honor of these two great men, today’s title is taken from a song by a band that changed its name when threatened by a lawsuit by the Elvis estate. Be the first one to post the name of the band and the name of the album that “All That Glitters” appeared on, and I’ll send you one whole dollar.

Stay fabulous, everyone.

I want to believe

I didn't go to a casino yesterday to play; it was me, a pie from Papa John's, and the computer. I played a little bit at Absolute Poker and Full Tilt Poker, and broke about even. It had been a long time since I'd played online, and I've got to tell you, it feels like "Poker Light". It has no flavor. It was fun, though, to play a few tournaments. I might have to try a few live ones after Amy's gone. She'll be here in a few hours, so today's post will be short.

Yesterday, I briefly referred to a "syndrome", and I'll call it the "I Want To Believe" syndrome. This phrase, you may remember, is slathered across the bottom of posters showing pictures of alleged UFOs. One of these posters adorned the wall in FBI Agent Fox Mulder's office wall, in the X-Files show. Agent Mulder, of course, was predisposed to coming up the most outlandish supernatural explanations for unexplained crimes. To keep him in check, the FBI then assigned another agent (Dana Scully) to work with him. Her job was to come up with equally outlandish, but scientific, explanations for the same crimes. Today's $1 goes to the first person who can name the music director for that show.

For the record, I have no opinion on whether or not aliens have visited our planet. Maybe they have, maybe they haven't. There doesn't appear to be any conclusive evidence that they have. As for the government/military being able to cover up something of that magnitude, my suggestion is to think back over all the things they haven't been able to cover up over the years, and then draw your own conclusions. All the same, the fact that there's total eclipse today is kinda creeping me out. If there ever were a good time for a sneak attack, it would be right then. I've got my aluminum foil hat ready, just in case. By the way, I saw a caption for an eclipse-related photo saying it was being billed as the biggest tourist draw ever for the country of Libya! Libya, anyone? Who's with me?

The point is, many, if not most, poker players could all take a cue from Dana Scully. There's a tendency to want to believe that your hand is the best - that your bluff will work - that your three-outer will hit - anything that results in you winning the hand. And because we want to believe this so badly, we search for supporting evidence, while ignoring evidence to the contrary. Sound familiar? As in, confirmation bias? However, typically the most rational conclusion is the correct one. And it's funny how when you're removed from the situation, and you see it happening to someone else, it is so clear that what they're doing is illogical.

Let me give you an example in the form of an HOTD.

HAND OF THE DAY:
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This HOTD is a completely hypothetical situation, but some personification would help. So let's call our protagonist yantBray eLay, and for the sake of argument, let's make him a solid player.

yantBray had gotten himself involved in a pot with a decidedly marginal hand - AT off. His opponents could best be described as unknowns. One gentleman had shown that he would play any two cards dealt to him; the other was new to the table but had shown some erratic behavior as well.

Flop: A24

I don't remember the amount of the betting here, but it was mild. All three players remained in the pot.

Turn: 2

There is now a pair on the board, as well as a possible straight. The action gets to the first of the two opponents, and he bets heavily - $50. This bet is called by the second of the two opponents. And it is now clear to you, me, and our fictional character yantBray that AT off is not a particularly strong holding - even considering the unpredictable nature of each opponent. Consider the multitude of hands that could beat top pair with a T kick on a paired/straight board, and it is clear that even calling is dubious, and the correct course of action likely would be to fold.

Here's where the "I Want To Believe" syndrome kicks in. In this story, our hero arrives at the conclusion that he has the best hand - despite convincing evidence (a $50 bet, which is called by another opponent) to the contrary. I know that this imaginary yantBray would have laid down his hand in an instant, if disciplined players were doing the betting. But, one thing to remember is that even unpredictable players can get a hand, as we've seen so many times at the McGarry home games (you know who you are).

To illustrate the point, our guy decides to push all in. Both opponents call, and one turns over a made straight (53), and the other turns over A6. There are only four cards remaining in the deck that can help him now - two aces, two deuces.

Aww...what the heck. Everyone likes a happy ending, right? Let's say that yantBray hits the miracle A on the river, giving him and his A6 opponent the same full house. They split the pot and the guy with the straight shrivels up and dies.

Now I'm not saying you should lay down your hands at the slightest provocation. However, sometimes a hand can best be assessed by stripping it down to the most basic elements. At the turn, the hand could have been distilled to this: "I have top pair with a middling kicker on a paired board (i.e. possible trips or full house) that also has a possible straight. I have two opponents; one of them has bet heavily at this pot, and the other has called".

I found this hand interesting, umm, as I dreamed it up, because I've done similar things in the past. After hands of this type, I find myself wishing I would take more time to analyze the situation, rather than getting caught up in it. So play well, and come back down to Earth if you find yourself doing stuff that's a little bit "out there".

When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer

I should have known not to make a mockery of things much more powerful than I.

Faithful readers of my blog already know my thoughts about such things as luck, karma, horoscopes, and any other new-agey train of thought that consists of nebulous generalities supported by selective observation. In fact, there is a term for such observation; it is called "confirmation bias". Essentially, this is the tendency to believe or focus on evidence that supports your pre-existing beliefs, while discounting evidence to the contrary. For example, a fervent believer in extraterrestrial life would point to the various photos and detailed accounts of UFO observation and be convinced they are true. And surely, the government's and military's denial of said UFOs is a grand conspiracy. In fact, for some it only lends more credence to the supposition.

So, fine. We all have our beliefs, and that's OK. You can go ahead and be all freaky if you want to. But it dawned on me the other day that my lack of belief in most things supernatural may have actually been working against me! This occurred to me as I gazed at the contents of the small bookshelf in the apartment I'm renting. Among the contents:

"Holy Ice: Bridge to the Subconscious"
"Women of the 14th Moon"
"Crystal Healing" and its faithful companion, "The Message of the Crystal Skull"
- and my personal favorite -
"Listen to Your Pain"

I had to at least entertain the possibility that my apartment was a vortex of mystical energy, and the reason I have been doing so poorly in poker is that I have not been giving these powers their due. So yesterday, I decided to make amends. I had already determined that the feng shui of my apartment was way, way, off...so I moved the free-standing jewelry box, that I was always bumping into at 0200, into the closet. Then I had a huge bowl of Lucky Charms. I don't know if the fact that it was on sale when I bought it renders it less effective - perhaps my prospective fortune was also reduced by 20%. Finally, I decided to pick a book from the shelf that I thought would have some good advice for a poker player - "The Psychic is You" - and looked for a quote which could be my spiritual guide for the day.

You can imagine how dismayed I was when Chapter 1 stated that everyone is psychic! This was pretty much the opposite of what I wanted to hear, although it explained a lot of the hands people have been calling me with. Engaging my confirmation bias, I ignored that assertion and paged through the rest of the book, looking for something, anything, I could use. Finally, I came upon this:

"From my own experience, I can say it is very easy to fall into the trap of playing out others' programs, if we receive them and fail to translate them properly."

Seemed applicable! So I wrote it on the back of the paper I was going to use to log my hourly results, and headed off to the Bellagio. People of the world, hear me now. The deities of whimsy do not appreciate half-hearted attempts at worship. Apparently, it's either all or nothing, like with the Great Pumpkin. You must be sincere. The night can be summed up with two hands with total pot value of $1100 - my AQ losing to A8, and my JJ getting sucked out by K9 on a 9-high board. Well, shoot. I guess if there's one other-wordly sensation I can subscribe to without question, it's deja vu.

So, another $400 of buyin gone. I've got today to try to get some of it back, and tomorrow Amy comes out to visit. Meanwhile, I'll be looking through "Phoenix Rising", by Mary Summer Rain, for some words of wisdom. I mean it this time.

HAND OF THE DAY:
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You know, I wrote out a whole HOTD and then I realized that I was describing a strategy that I've used several times with great effectiveness on this trip. I also realized that in all my time playing poker, I can't remember seeing anyone use this same strategy, or reading about it. I'm sure it's been done before, but it most definitely is not common. So this one, I'm going to play close to the vest. That makes two totally lame HOTDs in a row - Chuy called me out on yesterday's, and rightfully so. And I am aware my not sharing this could easily be perceived as me being selfish/paranoid/arrogant to the point of ridiculousness. Ha! Losers! I AM selfish, paranoid, and arrogant to the point of ridiculousness!!! Now you don't have to whisper about it behind my back!

Actually, there is a syndrome that I'd like to talk about, but it will involved a lot of writing and after already typing up one HOTD I don't feel like doing another right now. It actually dovetails nicely into today's theme of extraordinary beliefs. So bear with me, and we'll get to it tomorrow.

You got to lose to know how to win

Good morning.

Short blog today. I hope to get a lot of playing time in because I've been short on hours this week, and Amy is coming in on Tuesday. Yesterday wasn't so good - bought in, was up, down, back up again, and busted out on a bad play. I realized it would be good for me to leave, even though it was early. It doesn't take much today to get me in a frame of mind where I don't trust my judgment.

Rob got the GNR reference for yesterday - remarkably quickly, for a Saturday morning. Nice work. Ah, Guns N Roses...another of those rock-and-roll conglomerations of talent and ego that just seem bound to self-destruct. In addition to Slash and Axl, most people do not realize how talented Izzy Stradlin (rhythm guitar) was.

HAND OF THE DAY:
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So poker is apparently seeping into even my subconscious thoughts; I've dreamt about it at least twice since I've been out here. In last night's episode, I was playing a three-handed game against my sister Kristy, and Bryant. This would actually be a very difficult game for me to play, because Bryant has a really good sense of when I'm bluffing, and Kristy has no fear whatsoever, or enough poker sense to know when to lay down a hand (there's a story behind that I will probably tell later on). Anyway, in this particular dream, I could also see Kristy's down cards as they were being dealt, and with that info I knew she had queens full of tens. She bet out, and I said "OK" in a defeated tone, and prepared to muck my cards when I noticed I had quad kings (which would have been impossible, since I only had one K in my hand, and for Kristy to have her boat and me to have quads in a rank other than those in her boat, we would have required at least a 6-card board...but heck, it's my dream. It's equally unrealistic to imagine me not realizing I have quad kings, as it is to have a 6-card board). Anyway, Kristy had already mucked her hand, as it appeared I was about to surrender the hand. Then I said "Wait, I have quad kings!" The dealer got really snotty and told me I had lost the pot. Even though I technically had not folded because my cards were still in my hand, and my sister had folded, I let it go, because it was my sister. More importantly, it was a small pot. Ha!

Actually, there is a lesson in all of this, more for aspiring casino players than anyone else. Procedural mistakes are quite common with beginners, and you see a lot of money won and lost on improper betting, folding, premature mucking, etc. In fact, the other day at Caesar's, a gentleman accidentally mucked a royal flush to someone's full house. Anyway, for anyone thinking about playing for the first time in a casino, I would highly recommend familiarizing yourself with the procedures. Failing that, you should watch very closely to what other people do and emulate it to the T.

Play well, everyone!